Assessing the role played by meteorological conditions on the interannual variability of fire activity in four subregions of Iberia

Background The Iberian Peninsula is recurrently affected by severe wildfires resulting from an interplay of human activities, landscape features and atmospheric conditions.Aims role played conditions on wildfire activity in 2001–2020 assessed four pyroregions the Peninsula.Methods Wildfire characterised Fire Radiative Power (FRP) meteorological danger rated Weather Index (FWI). distribution log10FRP each pyroregion consists a truncated lognormal central body with Generalised Pareto distributions as tails, model improved using FWI covariate. Synthetic time series total annual FRP are generated models without covariate, compared against observed FRP.Key results Pyroregions NW, N, SW E present increases 1, 5, 6 7% interannual explained variance when progressing to that covariate.Conclusions developed characterise fire Peninsula, especially valuable comparing expected impacts for different scenarios climate change.Implications largest effects regions IP where strongest impact change expected.